Intense fall storm brings high winds and spawns Tornado in Clarington County.

An intense fall storm moved across the upper Great Lakes regions on Monday. Central pressures were down to 98.4kPa at the height of the storm which is unusually low for this time of year. Gusty winds accompanied the frontal passage with gusts topping in the 70km/h range in many areas. There were some wind warnings issued for locations to the north of Lake Erie and also a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for areas to the north and east of Lake Ontario.

Gusty winds will still be common place across the regions today as the storm departs to the east. The pressure gradient is quite strong, thus winds will be gusting to 60km/h at times across the Golden Horseshoe today.

Temperatures will be on the cool side as the flow is from the northwest, bringing some quite chilly air into the region. Temps won't bottom out to low overnight as the winds and cloud cover will help to prevent that from occuring.

Environment Canada has confirmed an F1 tornado in the Clarington County region from yesterday's storm passage.. Here is their report.

Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the National Capital
Region issued by Environment Canada Toronto at 3:23 PM EDT Tuesday
29 September 2009.

Tornado confirmed in the municipality of clarington from
thunderstorms on Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==

A sharp cold front which raced across Southern Ontario on Monday
spawned a line of thunderstorms which raced from Oshawa east along
the Lake Ontario shoreline towards Trenton early Monday afternoon.

An Environment Canada storm damage team investigated the damage in
the municipality of clarington today located in eastern portions of
Pickering-Oshawa-Southern Durham region. The damage was assessed as
an f1 tornado. F1 winds range from 120 to 170 km/h.

The updated total number of tornadoes for the 2009 season now stands
at 27. This is just shy of 2006 when a record 29 tornadoes occurred.
In an average year Ontario has 11 tornadoes.

The following highlights the damage from this tornado.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Date
Time(lcl)     location          event description
Near noon     east of orono     damage to three barns east of orono
sept 28       (path 8 km long)  to kendal, including one completely
                                                      Collapsed. Trees down. Funnel clouds
    Sighted
 

Special Weather Statement Issued by Environment Canada

Strong winds today and tonight..

A disturbance approaching from Northwestern Ontario is developing
into an early autumn storm as it moves across the upper Great Lakes
into Southern Ontario today.  A sharp cold front associated with the
developing storm is currently through lower Michigan and is expected
to race into Southwestern Ontario this morning then east across the
remainder of the district today.

Thunderstorms, may accompany the front as it races across Southern
Ontario.  There is a slight risk that thunderstorms may briefly
Reach severe limits with damaging winds and frequent lightning being
the main concern as the front blasts through.

Latest indications also suggest that very strong west to southwest
winds will develop in the wake of the front Monday, especially in
exposed areas near the shores of the lower Great Lakes.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation.
Severe thunderstorm watches and/or wind warnings may be issued as
required.
 

Computer model forecast into the Winter/

Long Range Climate models don't predict the weather, they give an idea of what the atmosphere is doing and by comparing trends in each model run, you begin to get a feel for what is in store.

Here is the interpretation of the European Computer Model Forecast for Canada for the coming months for the Ontario Region.

October... Fairly wet pattern through the Great Lakes regions. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal.

November... Zonal flow across the country meaning no real extremes in the weather. Im guessing that the model is having trouble with this month.

December...Colder than normal for the Great Lakes regions and into Atlantic Canada. Jet stream carving a trough over the region.

January.... Much colder than normal over the Great Lakes and into the Maritimes.

February... Continued colder than normal for the eastern part of the country. Plenty of Lake Effect snows for the great lakes and traditional snow belt regions.

March... Colder than normal pattern continues across the Great Lakes region.

Note... this is not a gaurantee, but just what the computer model is seeing. This is, however, been rather consistent from month to month, so confidence level is increasing in this forecast. Also, the past three years have been correct with the European model forecast.

Unsettled conditions through the weekend

Cloudy and unsettled conditions will move into Southern Ontario today as an area of showers gives some much needed rain to the regions. There will also be some imbedded thunderstorm activity that will give locally higher amounts of precipitation. Expect the rain to develop during the afternoon hours around the Golden Horseshoe region and last into Sunday. Temperatures will be seasonally mild into the high teens, which is normal for this time of year.

Windy for Monday, MUCH cooler Tuesday onwards.

A cold front will sweep through the Great Lakes area on Monday and this will bring with it some marked changes to the weather. First off... very windy conditions will accompany the front and for some time behind it as well. Winds will likely be gusting to 60 or 70 km/h during the day on Monday and again on Tuesday. Temperatures will also plummet as well with values only reaching the low teens from Tuesday onwards. This will be some of the coldest air so far this season for the area.

Computer model forecast into the Winter/

Long Range Climate models don't predict the weather, they give an idea of what the atmosphere is doing and by comparing trends in each model run, you begin to get a feel for what is in store.

Here is the interpretation of the European Computer Model Forecast for Canada for the coming months for the Ontario Region.

October... Fairly wet pattern through the Great Lakes regions. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal.

November... Zonal flow across the country meaning no real extremes in the weather. Im guessing that the model is having trouble with this month.

December...Colder than normal for the Great Lakes regions and into Atlantic Canada. Jet stream carving a trough over the region.

January.... Much colder than normal over the Great Lakes and into the Maritimes.

February... Continued colder than normal for the eastern part of the country. Plenty of Lake Effect snows for the great lakes and traditional snow belt regions.

March... Colder than normal pattern continues across the Great Lakes region.

Note... this is not a gaurantee, but just what the computer model is seeing. This is, however, been rather consistent from month to month, so confidence level is increasing in this forecast. Also, the past three years have been correct with the European model forecast.

Warm and Humid continue, cooler next week.

Cloudy conditions will start the day around the west end of Lake Ontario today. Cool northeasterly winds coming across Lake Ontario will create some clouds for the Hamilton, Burlington regions, while most other areas will see sunshine.... kinda not fair is it!!!!

Some clearing will take place by the afternoon hours, however temperatures won't climb that much as we only make it to the mid teens. It is, afterall, the end of September.

Get out the umbrella, because the weekend will be a washout. Rain will begin to move into the regions on Saturday and likely hang around for the following 3 or 4 days as we enter a rather unsettled pattern for the Great Lakes region. There is also the chance of a few thunderstorms on Saturday during the afternoon hours.

Behind this area of unsettled weather, the coolest air so far of the season is looming. Temperatures for much of next week will only be in the low teens as this arctic airmass settles into the region. This will also create some unsettled conditions close to the lees of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Computer model forecast into the Winter/

Long Range Climate models don't predict the weather, they give an idea of what the atmosphere is doing and by comparing trends in each model run, you begin to get a feel for what is in store.

Here is the interpretation of the European Computer Model Forecast for Canada for the coming months for the Ontario Region.

October... Fairly wet pattern through the Great Lakes regions. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal.

November... Zonal flow across the country meaning no real extremes in the weather. Im guessing that the model is having trouble with this month.

December...Colder than normal for the Great Lakes regions and into Atlantic Canada. Jet stream carving a trough over the region.

January.... Much colder than normal over the Great Lakes and into the Maritimes.

February... Continued colder than normal for the eastern part of the country. Plenty of Lake Effect snows for the great lakes and traditional snow belt regions.

March... Colder than normal pattern continues across the Great Lakes region.

Note... this is not a gaurantee, but just what the computer model is seeing. This is, however, been rather consistent from month to month, so confidence level is increasing in this forecast. Also, the past three years have been correct with the European model forecast.

High Pressure delivers cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday

Sunshine will mix with clouds across the Golden Horseshoe today, however temperatures will begin to cool down. Windsor saw a very summer like high temperature of 29.3 yesterday, but values won't be anywhere close to that today.

High pressure will begin to sink southwards and that will allow for some cooler air to filter into the regions. There isn't any precipitation associated with the arrival of cooler air, but the odd sprinkle can't be ruled out but they will be very widely scattered.

The same high that will bring the cooler weather Wednesday will be responsible for some chilly overnight temperatures that will find their way into the single digits overnight.

Another surge of colder air is expected to invade the eastern part of the country by the weekend. I think that the temperatures in the forecast are a bit conservative at this point and it will be more like mid teens for the region. I will have a better idea by tomorrow of how strong the colder air mass will be.

High pressure gives hot and cold....here's how

I thought I would throw this graphic in here as it perfectly explains how a high pressure area can deliver both cold and hot temperatures, depending on which side of the high you are.

The temps are in degrees F, with 90's being 32C to 37C  and 50's being 10C to 15C. This will be the set up for the coming weekend.

Seasonally warm holds on Monday

A west to southwesterly flow around a high pressure area will keep the temperatures across Southern Ontario in the mid 20's today. Summer still holds on across the region, even with Fall just around the corner. This is the time of year you want to get out and enjoy the weather because we all know, it's NOT going to last much longer.

For residents in portions of the Golden Horseshoe, especially around the Niagara Escarpment, strong radiational cooling overnight will allow fog patches to form in lower lying areas and on top of the escarpment. Fog will burn off during the morning hours.

Mainly Sunny conditions will continue for Tuesday however, temperatures will begin to drop from north to south as cooler air begins to sink southwards. An arctic high pressure area will begin to press southwards and the easterly flow around the bottom of the high will bring cooler conditions to Southern Ontario.

Unsettled and cooler by late week

Some unsettled conditions will enter the picture by Thursday. This would be the first precipitation event for many areas since the end of August.

Current longer range trends are seeing a very cool shot or air working it's way into Southern Ontario by next week with daytime highs only in the low teens. Perfect timing since we welcome the arrival of Autumn on the 23rd of the month.

High pressure gives hot and cold....here's how

I thought I would throw this graphic in here as it perfectly explains how a high pressure area can deliver both cold and hot temperatures, depending on which side of the high you are.

The temps are in degrees F, with 90's being 32C to 37C  and 50's being 10C to 15C. This will be the set up for the coming weekend.

High Pressure controls Southern Ontario Thursday

High pressure is pretty much in control over Southern Ontario as a wide ridge extending all the way from the east coast gives the region mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures today. For areas closer to the lakes, temps will be slightly cooler as an easterly wind keeps the high a few degrees lower. But, for the most part, expect high temperatures anywhere from 23 to 25 degrees today.

A large storm off the eastern seaboard of the United States will allow some moisture to begin creeping towards Southern Ontario on Friday. The High Pressure area that is situated to the north of this storm will help draw the moisture in and scattered showers can be expected across the regions with cooler temperatures as well.

Cooler Temperatures and unsettled to begin the weekend.

I wouldn't expect many regions to exceed the 20 degree mark on Friday. Some lingering showers can be expected on Saturday, but a general clearing will take place as the low moves away. Temps will remain on the cool side for Saturday, however a warming trend to the mid 20's is expected by early in the work week.

Current Long Range trends are seeing seasonal to slightly below for the next 15 days with no real wide temperatures swings at this point in time.

Hurricane Fred poses no threat to land; weakening

Hurricane Fred is spinning nicely over the open Atlantic waters but poses no threat to any land mass. At one point yesterday Fred was a Category 3 Hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph, but has since weekend. Check out the image of Fred yesterday.

Fred will continue to weaken as increasing wind shear will begin to literally tear the storm apart over the next few days.

Sunshine and Seasonally warm for the next 5 or 6 days

Sunshine will continue across the regions today with seasonally warm temperatures of around 24 to 25 degrees. Pretty much the same conditions that we have experienced over the past few days. Winds will be light, making it an absolutely gorgeous Labour Day weekend. Whether you are at the cottage for one last fling of the summer or at home, get out and enjoy.

Some moisture will begin to creep northwards on Monday and this may spark a few showers or even the odd thunderstorms across the regions in the later afternoon hours tomorrow. They will be widely scattered so at this point in time it's hard to pinpoint where, but it looks like the Hamilton regions and south will have a high chance of any precipiation than those areas north of Lake Ontario.

Much of the coming week will see sunshine mixing with clouds, however it will become unsettled towards the end of the week. Temperatures this will still hold their own with values in the low 20's.

 Currently it's looking like next Friday will start the transition to cooler weather as the jet stream begins to dive south of the regions. The same pattern that was dominate for most of the summer, warm in the west and cool in the east, is looking to take shape again for the latter half of September. Some of the longer range models don't see much of a change in this pattern even into October.

Sunshine and Seasonally warm for the next 5 or 6 days

Sunshine mixing with clouds will be the rule today as this gorgeous Labour Day Weekend continues. Temperatures will be seasonally warm with values around 24-25 degrees across the Golden Horseshoe region.

There really isn't much to report or even talk about for the next few days because High Pressure will remain firmly in control of the region giving sunshine and very pleasant temperatures likely right up until next Wednesday or Thursday.

Currently it's looking like next Friday will start the transition to cooler weather as the jet stream begins to dive south of the regions. The same pattern that was dominate for most of the summer, warm in the west and cool in the east, is looking to take shape again for the latter half of September. Some of the longer range models don't see much of a change in this pattern even into October.

Sunshine dominates... warm days and cool nights.

A large area of High Pressure continues to remain in control over Southern Ontario giving nothing but sunshine to the region. Temperatures will be seasonally warm to slightly above normal. Likely hovering around the 25 degree mark with very light winds. Today, marking the start of the long holiday weekend that un-officially ends the summer, will be a great day to get out and do what ever you do outdoors.

In fact, the entire weekend is looking pretty nice from this point with sunshine and decent temperatures around the 22 to 24 degree mark.

There is some uncertainty about next week however as a disturbance moving up from the southern states could bring some rain to the regions by early-mid week. However, it all depends on the strength of the high pressure area to the north, whether it can hold it's own and deflect the low moving northwards.

Looking into the longer range, computer models don't see any really anomalous weather for Southern Ontario. Temperatures are expected to be near normal to slightly above over the next 15 days and likely beyond according to the long range climate models that extend to the end of the month.

150,000 homeless in Western Africa due to flooding rains

An estimated 150,000 have been left homeless, in Burkina's capital of Ouagadougou and were stranded and homeless as the rain fell earlier this week. Major flooding has affected the capital and its surrounding suburbs. Prime Minister Tertius Zongo told journalists "many houses" had been destroyed. As torrential rain fell on the capital of the west African country, the prime minister also said an unknown number of people were missing.

Some 11 inches has fallen in places in the space of 10 hours. Such a downfall had not been seen since 1919. The Yalgado Ouedraogo hospital centre was under water late Tuesday, with 60 children having to be evacuated. The army joined firemen and police in aiding victims of the flood in the city of 1.5 million people.

< The flooded streets of Ouagadougou

Burkina Faso is a landlocked nation, formerly called the Republic of Upper Volta, it was renamed on Aug. 4, 1984, by President Thomas Sankara to mean "the land of upright people".

Burkina experiences seasonal rains from June which regularly cause fatal floods and mudslides in West Africa. In 2007, about 300 people were killed and more than 800,000 were affected when homes, crops and infrastructure were washed away.

According to global meteorologist Bob Tarr over the next 1-2 weeks the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will be pretty far north with embedded tropical waves... so showers and heavy thunderstorms will be pretty common.

Tropical Storm Erika downgraded to depression.

Tropical Storm Erika has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Erika moved over the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean yesterday and really, it was just a rainstorm with gusty winds. No island reported any winds of Tropical Storm Force or above 39mph. Erika is weakening rapidly and is not just a remnant low but will likely still bring heavy rains to portions of Puerto Rico and the Domincan Republic. Erika is not expected to regenerate.